Evolution of the netbook and onslaught of tablets

[ThisIsNot]

I actually haven't posted in here in quite a bit of time. I thought I would offer up my insight as to where I think the portable tech market is going. Specifically, I will discuss the importance of the netbook, its evolution, and where slate tablets (which I will just call tablets) come into play.

The netbook has slowly come a long way since its introduction in 2007. They were first designed to be lightweight, extremely portable, and cost efficient computers allowing for the bare basics of computing. This meant that they could go online with an internet browser and look at some content, read e-mails, and work with various documents. Many of them even ran Linux or Windows CE over full fledged Windows. Thing progressed and Microsoft started pushing Windows XP back onto manufacturers despite Windows Vista being the current release.

Things stayed calm for a while. Intel released and updated their Atom line of processors but performance never really increased. Instead, Intel focused on increasing power efficiency. This meant that the newer Atom processors would perform the same as the older ones while using less power. Netbooks gained the ability to playback HD videos, Windows 7 was eventually released, and now we have dual-core netbooks still running Atom processors that aren't much more powerful than the aged Atom 330 released in Q3 of 2008. Right now, I feel as if the netbook market has become stagnant. Sure, new models are coming out with some minor upgraded here and there but performance has remained relatively unchanged since the first introduction of a dual-core Atom processor made for netbooks and not nettops.

This slowdown in the netbook market is due to a few factors. Microsoft is reporting that netbook sales have been decreasing over the last year (starting early 2010) and that coincides with the release of something else: the iPad. Apple definitely wasn't the first company to release a tablet like that but they were the first when it came to garnering a large amount of developer support during the first launch day, making stylish hardware, putting a battery in there large enough to let the thing go all day without needing to be charged, and they were one of the first to use an operating system built around touch input while most other manufacturers were slapping a stylus/touch layer over Windows and calling it good.

There is another emerging computing group as well: notbooks. These are essentially ultra portable computers that have the form factors of netbooks yet the processing and GPU power of ~$500 notebooks. They have the battery life to match netbooks, cost only a little more ($100-$200 in most cases), run Windows 7 Home Premium (none of that Windows 7 Starter stuff), are capable of handling larger amounts of RAM (4-8GB), and are all around better machines. AMD is making great headway with its Fusion APU setup that is able to offer performance better than most Pentium processors (not to be confused with the Core i series) in a small and inexpensive package.

Traditional netbook developers have even moved beyond that medium for their products. Intel was behind this large netbook app movement yet that has been overshadowed by Apple's App Store and even the Android Marketplace. HP has pretty much stalled netbook development and has released the best notbook on the market. Their purchase of Palm and integration of webOS has further allowed them to focus on tablet development. Asus, the company that perfected the netbook, has all but abandoned its development in favor of releasing Android 3.0 powered tablets. The Eee Pad Transformer has set the standard for Android tablets. Program developers are finding a large amount of income in the tablet market as well. They can charge $1 (or more) for an app, upload it to a server, and have it accessible to a large number of people that can instantly download it.

This large flux of apps has made tablets a major source of revenue for developers and manufacturers. Not only that but hardware development has progressed at a much faster pace in the tablet arena. Powerful single-core SoCs (systems on a chip) were released last year capable of some multi-tasking and even 720p video playback (something that netbooks didn't support at least a year into their life). Dual-core more powerful SoCs were released later that year drastically increasing performance and even allowing for 1080p video playback.

The iPad 2 pretty much represents the pinnacle of current tablets. Apple was able to throw in more powerful hardware, two cameras (albeit low quality), a thinner and lighter design, and keep the same battery life as the previous generation (10 hours). This is somewhat of a reverse progression for notebooks and netbooks as more powerful hardware often results in decreased battery life. These modern tablets actually run apps and surf the web faster than many netbooks on the market, they have better displays, and their software is constantly being updated for future improvements (Microsoft isn't sending out any Windows 7 Starter updates that add for increased usage of an Atom processor).

I think Steve Jobs said it best at the end of his keynote video when introducing the iPad 2. It isn't about the silicone that their tablet runs but rather the software running through the hardware. It is all about the experience being offered to the consumer. Something that they can easily setup in less than a few seconds only to find a diverse world of apps. It is in the hardware design (let's face it, a tablet is easier to carry around than a netbook) and app world where tablets are striding for top sales spots. These two main aspects are leading to their insertion into everyday life and the downfall of the netbook.

Gone are the day when people have to carry around a desktop OS (Windows, OS X, Linux) just to give a PowerPoint presentation, edit a Word document, play a simple game of cards, or even surf media centric websites. They can now do all of that on a device that takes up less space than a 200 page spiral bound notebook (as in paper) that can go all day without needing to be plugged in.

Netbooks had their day in the Sun (mainly in 2008 and 2009) but I believe that their spotlight is fading fast as tablets are increasing in market share and notbooks are becoming more economically feasible. I still believe that netbooks represent a viable portable computing platform. Not everyone can afford a $400+ tablet/notbook, some people are still intent on using physical keyboards, and some can never break away from the traditional PC design (display, keyboard, and mouse). In fact, I just helped my grandparents buy a netbook. They were using an 8 year old Gateway notebook that finally died on them. All they ever do is open Word about once a week and go online to check their e-mail, that is it. They don't use a computer for anything else. They wanted to buy something new and portable as they travel a lot. They didn't want to switch from what they knew (ie Windows, keyboard, and mouse) and were on a budget (despite having enough funds to buy a 64GB 3G iPad 2). My grandparents were the perfect candidates for a netbook and, so far, they love it.

I believe that the younger generations and tech hungry crowds, the same people that were purchasing netbooks when they were first released, have already moved to tablets and will likely stay there as the software and hardware innovation is in tablets.

What was the point of all of this? I just wanted to give my opinions about netbooks and maybe answer questions as to why I am suggesting that some people buy tablets instead of a netbook or that they should go with a notbook. I just believe that the future of ultra portable computing is in tablets. Many people are now using the combination of a desktop at home and a tablet for portable computing. They will spend $1500 and purchase an awesome desktop along with an iPad.

I recently purchased a MBP a few months ago and, when I start my MS degree program at UC this year, I plan on leaving it at home a lot and instead relying on my iPad 2 for note taking in class and all of my on-campus light computing needs.